Do football, basketball and even hockey have key numbers? Do key numbers exist in other sports? Since we’ve been talking about NFL key numbers up to this point, it’s only natural to wonder if the concept extends to other sports. Together, these numbers accounted for more than 40% of decisive margins during the selected sample from this study. Fourteen as well, but since few spreads are near 14, it isn’t as actionable. Note that to a lesser extent, 4, 6 and 10 follow as the next most common margins. Even in 2015, the first year with the longer extra point, 3 and 7 decided more games than any other numbers – although 6 crept way up and wasn’t too far behind. They frequently determine the winning and losing sides of bets.įor reference, check out this study. Teams win and lose by 3 and 7 more often than any other numbers. An easy way to see that is simply look at the margins of victory across some sample of NFL games. If a given game played out 1,000, 10,000 or 1,000,000 theoretical times, it would probably land on every reasonable number at some frequency.īut, it would land on some numbers more often than others. Knowledgeable bettors take them seriously.Īll numbers have at least some impact. You can still bet against the consensus, but instead of trying to figure out if one team is more likely to cover over the other, or if the total is going to go OVER or UNDER the oddsmaker’s set number, you simply have to pick a Sportsbook.Shifting prices in the markets – for example, a point spread between two teams moving from 3 to 3.5 – represent changes in implied probabilities. If you’re unsure if fading the public is the right move for you, choose the moneyline. That can be a significant edge and will pay off over the course of a season, resulting in a few extra wins. Lines on those teams are created accordingly so bettors willing to take the underdog are typically working with an extra point, if not more than that. They also tend to like popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and whoever won the previous season’s Super Bowl. Two of the most common public plays are taking the favorite and OVER odds in nationally televised games such as Monday Night Football. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t make a profit betting against the NFL public and waiting for better odds. Since the betting community tends to be wrong as much as they are right, online sportsbooks use these trends to their advantage when setting the odds and betting lines. Why?īecause odds experts are the ones who set the Sportsbook numbers with the public in mind, trying to get them to lean in a certain direction. If NFL bettors knew what they were doing on a consistent basis, online betting sites would not make any money. Can You Outsmart a Sportsbook by Fading the Public?Ī successful oddsmaker is one who anticipates the public by looking at betting trends, past scores and odds. You can also look to our NFL Betting Trends page for even more handicapping data, like how often the total has gone OVER or UNDER when these two squads played each other in the past. KC is no longer favored by a touchdown, allowing you to pounce on these new odds and take the other side.įollowing NFL line moves gives you the chance to figure out who the public is betting on and determine which side of the bet you want to back. But, by Thursday the line moves to -3.5/+3.5 because of an injury to a key player, shifting the odds. Let’s pretend the public is heavily backing the Chiefs. In the case of going against public money NFL bets, all you really need is the line to move to make a solid bet.įor example, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Los Angeles Rams and the odds opened like this on Monday: Sharps – experienced bettors – see these initial line moves and try to wait as long as possible until they believe the odds are at their peak before betting the other side. First-time bettors may put their money down on a particular team because they like them, which in turn forces the sportsbook to adjust their Sportsbook odds.
Successful point spread betting involves trying to get the best odds. This is also known as “fading” because you are taking the other side of where the NFL public money is going. Conversely, if you believe that the 44 percent are right, you are betting against the public. If you believe that the 56 percent are right, you are betting with the public. In this case, 56 percent of the betting public believe the Pats will cover the spread and 58 percent of bettors believe that the total will go OVER 34 points.
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